Arapahoe County. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. "They followed through the whole four years. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. (Go to the bottom of the page. Here's why. 2016 Election (1135) Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. So, where are the bellwether counties? What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. 2023 BBC. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. There are 391 such counties. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Twitter Twitter who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Contributors wanted Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. 12. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Trump won the other 18 counties. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Election night is going to be information overload. Sumter County, . There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) All Rights Reserved. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Trump won 18 of the 19. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. What are your thoughts on this article? Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Their emotions and decision making process are real. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Still, the state's worth watching. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State.
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